Five reasons why the 2024 European elections will drastically change Europe
Five reasons why the 2024 European elections will drastically change Europe
Aline Burni makes the case for the relevance of the upcoming European elections and their importance for the future of the European Union and its citizens.
Between 6 and 9 June 2024, European citizens will go to the polls to elect the 720 members of the European Parliament (EP).
This year is special. Because of the high stakes and the key questions to be debated, the institutional changes that are likely to happen after the June elections will be set in a radically different context.
In this article, Aline Burni, a contributor to 400 Million Votes, shares the five reasons that make the 2024 elections so special.
400 Million Votes is a bi-weekly newsletter covering the 2024 European elections campaign. Don’t miss any important updates and stories. Subscribe to 400 Million Votes.
If you don’t know if 400 Million Votes is for you, you can read about us.
And now, to your newsletter.
The voices of EU citizens
The European Parliament might not be the most powerful institution of the European Union, but it is very influential and voices the interests of citizens.
As the only European body directly elected by citizens, it is also fundamentally different from national parliaments. The European Parliament does not propose laws by itself but can adopt, reject, or amend legislative proposals from the European Commission, which has the initiative.
Moreover, the European Parliament has an important supervisory role in other European institutions. For instance, it is responsible for monitoring the EU budget, approving or dismissing the Commission, and giving consent to international agreements.
Against the backdrop of increasing political disaffection and the rise of populism across Europe, the next European vote will be crucial not only for the future of the European project itself but also to determine the political direction of fundamental decisions affecting people’s lives and livelihoods.
More ambitious EU policies?
The next legislature will take significant decisions and co-legislate on very existential questions such as the climate emergency, as well as fundamental concerns of Europeans like migration management, support to Ukraine, and economic growth.
All these are questions that require European (and global) cooperation and cannot be effectively solved at the level of the national state only, even though engagement and action by Member States is essential.
However, there seems to be a gap between the public’s perception of the climate emergency on the one hand, and political action towards climate change on the other. Although climate change appears among the top three concerns of Europeans, with an overwhelming majority supporting the EU’s climate action, we also see backlashes against climate policies, increasingly voiced by mainstream right-wing parties - not only populist radical right groups.
This rhetoric opposing further action on climate change or even trying to go back on some decisions has resonated with large parts of the public, as illustrated by the recent rise of the Farmer-Citizen Movement in the Netherlands. More and more, conservative politicians in Europe go explicitly against environmental measures, refuse to comply with them, and adopt a rhetorical antagonism that opposes ‘the farmers / the rural communities’ and ‘the elites / the urban world’. For example, in France, the leader of the ‘Les Republicians’ party announced that the region he governs will no longer comply with one initiative aiming to protect the land from artificialisation processes, which is inserted in the framework of French climate law. He accused the law of being a ‘ruralicide’. In the populist rhetoric, new definitions of the empty signifier ‘the people’ are being shaped, drawing from rurality and traditional ways of life. It sounds familiar, doesn’t it?
On top of that, the Greens are projected to be the party group to lose the most seats in the next European legislature. While it is unclear whether this could be explained by the negative assessment of their government performance, sometimes according to their own constituency (as in Germany, for example), or because the younger Europeans are most likely to abstain, it is puzzling that those contrasting messages coexist only eight months ahead of the European elections.
It is absolutely crucial that the next European elections strongly mobilise citizens. For the sake of democracy, for the sake of Europe.
Prelude to enlargement
In the next institutional cycle, crucial decisions on the future of European integration, notably on the enlargement process, will be made.
The context, however, is particularly challenging, as the EU of 27 has already suffered from several episodes of fragmentation, lack of cohesion and paralysis, for instance concerning support to Ukraine or the common migration policy—which still hasn’t found a consensus.
This Autumn, the European Commission will present its Enlargement Report. By the end of the year, accession negotiations are expected to start with Ukraine and Moldova.
The war in Ukraine has opened a new momentum for enlargement but has also put a spotlight on the fatigue of countries that have not seen progress in their applications.
By 2030, the EU of 27 could become the EU of 30+. Central decisions related to this process will be taken in the few years to come. How to integrate, within a decade, eight to nine new countries into the EU?
Like the expansion to Central and Eastern Europe in the period 2004-2007, the EU will be confronted with complex and controversial questions around institutional and governance reforms—not to mention the policy ones (agriculture, social rights, health, energy…). Will the principle of unanimity be replaced by new decision-making rules, having qualified majority voting adopted in more areas? What will the institutions of an EU of 30+ look like?
Hopes of Treaty reform
As the president of the European President recalled in a press conference on 6 October, it is hard to imagine an EU of 30+ functioning under the same rules as today. Treaty changes are necessary for an enlarged Union.
In June 2022, the Parliament made a historic move to activate the process of changing EU Treaties, asking the Council to vote on the opening of a convention to reform the European treaties.
As part of the follow-up measures approved by citizens in the Conference on the Future of Europe, MEPs call for reforms which include switching from unanimity to qualified majority in certain areas and simplifying the so-called Passerelle Clause. MEPs aim to push for a Council vote until the end of this term, but the convention would only start after the new Parliament takes office.
The spectre of absenteeism
Finally, the next European elections are announced to be particularly special because of the strong winds of uncertainty blowing.
Predictions point to a high level of political turnover, with more than 55% of MEPS likely to be newcomers. However, there could be a positive aspect, because this opens the opportunity for renewal, for the entrance of new voices in the Parliament, as well as new ideas that can oxygenate the system. Still, this will only be the case if a significant renewal of the Parliament is the result of a strong electoral mobilisation in June 2024.
On top of that, the Greens are projected to be the party group to lose the most seats in the next European legislature.
On the contrary, a high abstention could turn out to be even more damaging for the EU, because the new Parliament could resemble even less the diverse societies it is supposed to represent, and this could promote a new sense of illegitimacy and distance.
It is absolutely crucial that the next European elections strongly mobilise citizens. For the sake of democracy, for the sake of Europe.
Thank you for reading. Now that you reached the end of the article, it probably means that you liked what you read.
If so, we would kindly ask for your help. You can help 400 Million Votes grow by sharing this piece with a friend, a colleague, or on your social media.
Thank you. Don’t forget to subscribe to 400 Million Votes.
 | A guest post by
|